Werth, Howard know that experience matters

When Jayson Werth got home after last season’s World Series, he didn’t expect to feel the way he did. Sure, losing the World Series to the Yankees is never easy and it would seem that winning it all one year and then falling short in six games the next would temper some of the disappointment, but Werth says he was actually surprised at how emotional he felt.

Granted, Werth didn’t have any expectations of what losing the World Series is supposed to feel like, but when it actually happened it was like a punch in the jaw.

“Looking back I might be a little surprised about the emptiness, but it’s not like I’m sitting around and thinking about, ‘what if, what if,’” Werth explained. “We just have to get out there and start playing. It’s the stuff that comes after—the emotions.”

Perched at a table in a parking lot turned conference hall, Werth went over what he went through during the off-season and how that has shaped the team’s goals for this season and the playoffs. With Game 1 of the NLCS against the Giants set to begin on Saturday night at the Bank, Werth and the Phillies are getting closer to where they want to be, but know all too well how much work remains.

For some reason Werth and his teammate Ryan Howard understand that their experiences have hardened their focus on the current task. They are ready for anything and everything that comes their way. But mostly Werth wants to avoid that emptiness again.

“When I look back to last offseason, I got home and I had a sour taste in my mouth,” Werth said on Friday afternoon. “I definitely have always been the type of person who wants to win and hates to lose, so it probably started last winter. You take a few weeks off and you start to work out and everything hurts and you feel like you haven’t worked out in a couple of years, you slowly build up and you get to spring training and you get ready to go at it again, but the thoughts of all your accomplishments and non-accomplishments are very fresh.

“At the start of the year I definitely had a goal in mind and here we are many months later with a chance to see those goals through with a chance to succeed on the grand stage. It’s an exciting time, but at the same time your ability to focus goes way up and the end result is so near and so close—we’re not many games away. It has a lot to do with a lot of things. You wake up in the morning and you know why you’re going to the ballpark, you know why you’re out there practicing, and you have a sense of what’s going on maybe more than a lot of people realize.

“The old saying that we live for this, I guess it holds true.”

That’s where Werth and the Howard believe the Phillies have an advantage. Experience, especially playoff experience, cannot be measured. Sure, there have been some inexperienced teams that won the World Series, but those runs rarely last more than a season or two. And yes, some seasoned baseball men will tell you that experience rarely supersedes talent or luck, but in the same breath they will explain how it’s the greatest intangible.

The Phillies are loaded with experience. In fact, Werth, Howard, Shane Victorino, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz have started 35 straight playoff games together. They have been through it all… together.

Oh sure, the Giants have six players with World Series rings, including Edgar Renteria who ended Game 7 of the 1997 World Series with a walk-off single in the 12^th inning, and Pat Burrell whose long double set the table for the Phillies’ clinching victory in Game 5 of the 2008 World Series. But the Giants also have 16 players who are advancing past the first round for the very first time.

“Each year you learn a little bit more—you grow. Starting in 2007 we didn’t know what to expect so we were the new guys, but once we made it again in 2008 we knew what to expect,” Howard said. “We stayed focused and we knew what we wanted to accomplish. From 2008 to 2009, we wanted to do it again and we got there, but fell short.

“Now we’ve seen all the different aspects of it from just getting there, to getting there and getting on top, to getting there and coming up short.”

Losing to the Yankees last year after setting the record for most strikeouts in the history of the World Series bothers Howard. He doesn’t like talking about failure. Never did. Then again, most ballplayers are like that, which is why Werth describing his disappointment at losing last year is significant. When it all came to a close at Yankee Stadium last November, Werth, Howard and their teammates said all the right things. They built a convincing façade that hid the reality that the defeat stung as bad as it did.

Hell, word around the clubhouse after Game 6 was that Werth announced there were 100 days to spring training during the team’s final gathering for a post-game beer.

At the same time, the Phillies would trade that experience for anything. There’s something about calloused and hardened focus that can push a guy. As one Phillie likes to say, quoting a buddy in the Marines, “Pain is weakness leaving the body.”

Yes, experience matters.

“It helps. It definitely does. If you look back at 2007 when we first got into the playoffs we went up against a buzz saw team in the Rockies and we didn’t fare too well. I think experience had something to do with that,” Werth said. “The next year we go to Milwaukee and the first game there—that first night in Milwaukee—it was louder than any place I’ve ever been and it affected us. We were shell shocked a little bit and we lost that game and then the next night we came out and it was just as loud, and it had no affect on us.

“We’re in our fourth year of the postseason now and there’s definitely something to be said for postseason experiences and all that going forward.”

Said Howard: “Being there. Being in those situations from before. We don’t panic. We’ve been in these situations before so we’re not going to panic. We’ve been up, we’ve been down and had to come back. We’ve seen it all.”

That’s what the Phillies are clinging to. Even going up against Tim Lincecum, who threw a magnificent, two-hit, 14-strikeout shutout against the Braves in his playoff debut hasn’t fazed the Phillies. They know Lincecum and respect him.

But then again every pitcher this time of the year is dangerous. All of them. The Dodgers were supposed to have the pitching staff and deep bullpen that was going to outlast the Phillies in 2008 and 2009, but it just didn’t happen that way. Both times the Phillies won in five games.

“We’ve seen him quite a bit. We know what he’s featuring and what to expect,” Werth said about Lincecum, but then again...

“We’ve seen some pretty good pitching over the years,” he added. “When you get to this level they’re all pretty good. We’ve been here before and with the experience we’ve had it definitely helped us along the way.”

A veteran and tested playoff club, the Phillies can’t wait to get started. They want to get back to work.

“I’m feeling good, I’m feeling alright. I’m excited for tomorrow night,” Howard said.

“Hey, I didn’t mean to rhyme. That was my Muhammad Ali moment.”

Measuring the postseason gems

CINCINNATI — The so-called year of the pitcher has made a seamless transition into the postseason. Obviously, Roy Halladay’s no-hitter against the Reds in Game 1 of the NLDS stands out, but that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

Heading into Saturday’s action, the Texas Rangers had allowed just one run against Tampa Bay in the first two games of the ALDS. That wouldn’t be as extraordinary if the Rays hadn’t finished the regular season with the best record in the American League and were one game behind the Phillies for best record in the majors.

In Game 1 Texas got a 10-strikeouts, zero-walks gem from Cliff Lee followed by 6 1/3 innings of shutout ball from lefty C.J. Wilson, a pitcher wrapping up his first season as a starter in the big leagues and his first real chance to star since 2005 when he was in Double-A.

Cole Hamels again tore through the Reds’ lineup in Game 3 of the NLDS, clinching the series with a five-hit, nine-strikeout shutout. As a result, the Phillies got their first-ever sweep of a playoff series (they were swept, coincidentally, by the Reds in 1976), posting a 1.00 ERA and holding the Reds to a .124 batting average.

Think about that for a second… the Reds led the National League in runs, batting average, homers, on-base percentage and slugging, but got just four runs and 11 hits in three games.

The year of the pitcher, indeed.

Nevertheless, the pitching performance that everyone has been yapping about since it went down on Thursday night is Tim Lincecum’s 14-strikeout, two-hitter in the Giants’ 1-0 victory over the Braves in Game 1of the other NLDS matchup. Forget that the Giants only scratched out one (controversial) run against Derek Lowe or the fact that the Giants weren’t exactly tearing the cover off the ball, the big theme of this postseason is all pitching.

Then again, that doesn’t make this season any different from any other baseball playoffs. However, through just the first round this year there have been as many top-shelf pitching performances by guys in their playoff debuts in recent memory. In fact, there has even been some chatter that Lincecum’s two-hitter was a better pitched game than Halladay’s no-hitter.

Certainly by the Bill James devised Game Score, Lincecum’s gem registered a 96 and was the second-best pitched game in the history of the postseason. That, of course, is according to the formula that skews toward strikeouts and innings pitched, but gives no credence to efficiency, the significance of the game, or emotion. For instance, the highest rated postseason game ever was a 98 by Roger Clemens’ one-hit, 15-strikeout victory over the Mariners in Game 4 of the 2000 ALCS, a game that gave the Yankees a 3-1 lead in the series.

Meanwhile, Jack Morris’ 10-inning shutout in Game 7 of the 1991 World Series rated just an 84. Hamels’ shutout on Sunday night to beat the Reds scored an 86 and the Phillies’ lefty threw a half-dozen fewer pitches and one less inning than Morris.

Plus, it wasn’t the seventh game of the World Series, either.

Anyway, to rate Lincecum’s two-hitter higher than Halladay’s no-hitter, Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series, or even Morris’ gritty gem, is just plain silly. This isn’t to take anything away from Lincecum, who was brilliant in the Giants’ Game 1 victory over the Braves, but it wasn’t nearly as good as Halladay’s no-hitter in Game 1.

Do we really need to spell it out?

Well, OK… try these:

• Halladay threw just the second no-hitter in postseason play. Moreover, Halladay was the first pitcher to carry a no-hitter into the eighth inning of a playoff game since Jim Lonborg did it in the 1967 World Series. The Major League Baseball postseason began in 1903 and has taken place every season since 1904 and 1994. Imagine the tension that goes on in a typical no-hitter, let alone one in the playoffs.

• Halladay threw a no-hitter against the team that led the league in every important offensive category (and even some unimportant ones), while Lincecum beat a team that struggled at the plate during the final month of the season and featured a lineup without Chipper Jones and Martin Prado.

• Did you see the swings the Reds took at the pitches Halladay threw? He owned them. Better yet, Halladay needed just 104 pitches to finish his no-hitter. Lincecum needed 119 pitches to finish his game and gave up a pair of doubles, including a ringing shot by Brian McCann, a hitter who has batted .381 in his career against the pitcher. Conversely, Halladay gave up 13 hits to the Reds in a loss in June, but figured out how to get them out in the playoffs.

• Lincecum gave up a hit to the first batter of the game, removing all the pressure and tension that goes with throwing a no-hitter. The kid could simply settle in and go about his work. Halladay was so good that it would have been shocking for him not to throw the no-hitter.

Frankly, it seems as some have claimed that Lincecum’s gem was better than the no-hitter just to be different or make an argument. Whatever. Either way, it’s not correct. Halladay’s no-hitter was dominant and sublime. It was a work of art—poetry come to life.

However, where Lincecum scores points comes from this interview with Wiley Wiggins, the actor that played Mitch Kramer in the phenomenal Dazed and Confused. Mitch Kramer was a pitcher who won big ballgames, too. That ought to count for something.

Just how great was Roy Halladay's playoff no-hitter?

The thing about unprecedented events is it’s difficult to place it in the proper perspective. Not only is there no historical context in which to measure something, but also it’s tough to wrap your brain around just what it was that occurred.

Then there is Roy Halladay’s no-hitter in his first playoff game on Wednesday night at the Bank against the Cincinnati Reds. Yes, there once was a no-hitter in the post-season—a perfect game, in fact. More notably, Don Larsen’s perfect game came before there was such a thing as divisional play. The first place teams in both leagues went from the regular season straight to the World Series. No fuss, no muss.

So Larsen’s perfect game in Game 5 of the 1956 World Series happened so long ago that it doesn’t really translate to a modern audience. Oh sure, a perfect game is easy to understand. It’s 27 up and 27 down. But can a no-no in the World Series be properly compared to a no-hitter in the NLDS 54 years later? The game is different than it was even a few years ago, forget about more than a half a century.

Plus, consider this… only five players who appeared in Larsen’s perfect game are alive today. Four of those players were on the Yankees (Larsen, Yogi Berra, Gil McDougald, Andy Carey) and just one was from Brooklyn (Duke Snider). Even the eye-witnesses to both Larsen and Halladay’s historical games are few and far between. Dallas Green, the former Phils’ manager and current senior advisor to GM Ruben Amaro Jr., says he saw them both putting him in a class not quite as elite as the other club he belongs to.

That even rarer group? Only Green and Charlie Manuel managed the Phillies to a World Series title.

Nevertheless, just how does Halladay’s no-hitter rank in the history of postseason performances? It wasn’t a Game 7 like the 10-inning, 126-pitch shutout Jack Morris pitched in the 1991 World Series to lead the Twins over the Braves. Nor was it a World Series game, like the epic 17-strikeout shutout the Cardinals’ Bob Gibson threw at the Tigers in Game 1 of the 1968 World Series.

Halladay’s gem came in the opening game of the first of three playoff rounds where teams can play as many as 19 postseason games compared to two rounds in Morris’ day and just one series in Gibson’s. If the Phillies go the limit in all three rounds, Halladay could start as many as seven games.

Halladay has never started more than six games in a single month in his career.

Indeed, the game is played much differently these days, and Halladay’s pitching line from his playoff debut speaks for itself. The only way it can improve is if he cuts down on the walks by one. But in using just 104 pitches, the one walk given to Jay Bruce wasn’t that significant. All it did was create a really weird moment when Halladay had to pitch from the stretch. Now that was awkward. While pitching with a runner on base Halladay looked like a newborn fawn attempting to take its first step. It just didn’t look right.

Anyway, stat wizard Bill James came up with a metric called “game score,” which attempts to measure a pitcher’s outing by giving him points for innings pitched and strikeouts and penalizing him for hits, walks and runs allowed. Game score is measured up to 100, a score never achieved.

What game score does not measure  or even consider is the magnitude of the game. It also eliminates the humanness of the game. For instance, Halladay’s 104 pitches were amazingly efficient, but he needed seven more pitches than Larsen needed in his perfect game in ’56.

Meanwhile, Morris’ effort in Game 7 scored only an 84. Larsen’s perfecto? That’s only a 94 with three games rated higher. In 2000, Roger Clemens’ tossed a one-hitter against Seattle in the ALCS to garner an all-time high of 98. The second-highest scored game was an 11-inning, three-hit shutout by Dave McNally of Baltimore against the Twins in Game 2 of the 1969 ALCS.

A 25-year-old rookie for Billy Martin’s Twins named Chuck Manuel had a pretty good seat on the bench for McNally’s gem.

No. 3 on the list is a 14-inning effort by Babe Ruth of the Red Sox against Brooklyn in Game 2 of the 1916 World Series. The Red Sox beat the Dodgers for their second straight World Series title that year.

Halladay’s playoff no-hitter is tied with Larsen’s epic with a 94. That supplants Cliff Lee’s 86 in Game 3 of the 2009 NLCS for the best postseason score by a Phillies pitcher in the postseason, but is four points less than the 98 Halladay scored during his perfect game against the Marlins on May 29 of this year.

It’s far from a perfect measurement, but given some semblance of a historical perspective only three games in 107 years of postseason history were better than Halladay’s effort in Game 1 of the NLDS.

'Filthy. Filthy. Completely filthy'

Frankly, I prefer to measure great games with my newly devised “talk test.” This is measured by going into the clubhouses of both teams after the game and measuring the hyperbole. In fact, if a player actually uses the word, “hyperbole,” the way Joey Votto did on Wednesday night, give up a million bonus points.

So as far as the talk test goes, the best read comes in the losing team’s clubhouse. In that regard, the adjectives and awed expressions from the Reds were just like those from the Phillies.

“I wonder how many times I would have struck out if I would have kept going up there,” said Scott Rolen, who went 3-for-3 in strikeouts against Halladay in Game 1.

Rolen was a teammate of Halladay’s for parts of two seasons in Toronto and knows what it’s like to be in the field with the big righty on the mound.

“Being his teammate, [a no-hitter] could happen every time he goes out there. You know that,” Rolen said. “You don’t expect it, though. We didn’t draw it up like that in our hitters’ meetings, but we had our hands full. He’s the best pitcher in baseball in my opinion.”

That opinion was the consensus on Wednesday night. When asked what he thought about Halladay’s pitches from his spot at shortstop, Jimmy Rollins shook his head and searched for the words.

“Filthy,” Rollins said, adding that Halladay’s pitches were nastier on Wednesday than during his perfect game in May. “Filthy. Completely filthy.”

Votto probably explained it best.

“When you’re trying to thread a needle at the plate, it’s miserable. It’s not fun up there trying to hit nothing,” Votto said.

So again, what do we compare it to? Sure, it’s easy to compare statistics from games throughout time, but what about the repertoire of pitches? Is it possible?

Probably not, but let’s try anyway. From the Phillies side, rookie Dom Brown said it was like watching a video game the way Halladay’s curve swept from right to left and the way his cutter snapped like a branch breaking off a tree.

Jonny Gomes, the Reds’ left-fielder who struck out twice in three at-bats, said that while he didn’t waive the white flag, he pretty much ceded one side of the plate to Halladay so that he could concentrate on the opposite side in the odd chance that he might get something to hit.

I’ll liken Halladay’s cutter on Wednesday to the splitter Mike Scott threw in the 1986 NLCS for the Astros against the Mets. Scott pitched two complete games in the ’86 series, allowed eight hits against 19 strikeouts and one run. Fourteen of those strikeouts came in the Game 1 shutout and left the Mets scrambling to collect game-used balls in order to send them off to the league office as some sort of proof that Scott was scuffing them in order to make the splitter dance out of the strike zone so effectively.

The difference between Halladay and Scott, however, was the balls collected by the Reds were to keep for the trophy case to show people they were there. 

Ready to dive in

The playoffs start tomorrow! That’s an awesome thing. What makes it especially awesome is that after idling through February and March in Clearwater and six months of a regular season, we’re down to just eight teams. That’s barely a quarter of the league whereas is the other major league sports (hockey included), a high percentage of the teams get into the playoffs. Kind of waters down the regular season doesn’t it?

More interestingly, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the Phillies could be out of it by the time the Eagles play on Sunday. Or, they could be waiting on the Cardinals and Dodgers to decide the other NLDS.

That’s the beauty of baseball… we do this every day.

Nevertheless, before we dive in full force for Game 1, be warned that this site will go live for all playoff games. That’s just the way we do it for the big ones. Oh… and in the interest of self-congratulation, looks like I nailed the Phillies’ playoff roster with a perfect 25-for-25.

OK, there were two hedges, but really, there’s no sense in over thinking it. Put the best guys out there and don’t get too fancy with the fancy boy stats and let ‘em get at it.

Nevertheless, HONK! HONK!

PUNTO! I was planning on writing an epic blog post of the greatness of Twins’ infielder Nick Punto (Posnanski has Duane Kuiper, I have Punto!), because he seemed to be in the middle of a few big plays in the terrifically epic playoff game in Minnesota against the Twins, but we’ll wait for a bona fide heroic moment.

Still, who didn’t think Punto! Wasn’t the hero when he lined that ball to left in the 10th with one out?

For a stadium that everyone agrees is a dump, the Metrodome, in its last regular-season baseball game, has seen some epic ballgames. First, Game 7 of the 1991 World Series where Jack Morris went 10 innings to beat the Braves, 1-0, was one of the greatest games I’ve seen. And now the Tigers-Twins to get to the ALDS and face the Yankees.

Good stuff.

93 wins and more holes than a slice of domestic Swiss

It wasn’t that long ago that Game 162 meant the end of the line for the Phillies. In fact, we were used to it that way. As September morphed into October, that was pretty much it for the baseball season. If the Phillies could make the season last up to the last few days of the regular season, then it was a pretty successful year. That was then, though. Now, we’re beginning to get spoiled with baseball. Game 162 is nothing more than a dress rehearsal or when the season really begins to get interesting. Sure, the regular season is important, but the post season is what we’ll all remember.

It’s what we expect, because we’re spoiled.

Don’t believe me? OK, the Phillies won 93 games this season, which is two more than the World Series champs in 1980 and one more than the 2008 champions won. Ninety-three wins are the most by a Phillies team since the 1993 club won 97. Since 1883, the Phillies have had just four team win more than 93 games in a season—in 1899, 1976, 1977 and ’93.

In other words, the 2009 Phillies won more games than 122 other teams in franchise history. Yet strangely, we’re kind of disappointed with the Phillies.

Go ahead; admit it… there was a bit of disappointment in how this season played out. Sure, the Phillies won the NL East rather easily, but the rational fan is worried about the NLDS against the Rockies. That’s especially the case with Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels pitching the way they have lately. And the bullpen in the shape it has been in this year.

Can you believe the ‘pen had 22 blown saves this year? Actually, make that 17 blown saves for the two guys (Brad Lidge, Ryan Madson) that likely will be closing out games in the playoffs.

And then there is the matter of hitting with runners in scoring position. Sure, the Phillies led the league with 224 home runs this year, but they hit .253 with runners in scoring position, including just .216 with runners in scoring position and two outs.

The most worrisome aspect of the hot-and-cold offense has been Chase Utley, who finished the season bone tired. In fact, manager Charlie Manuel should have told his All-Star second baseman to spend the week at home sleeping and replenishing for the playoffs. Think about it—not only did Utley play in 156 games in 2009, but also he did so after spending the winter busting his rear to rehab his surgically repaired hip in order to be ready for Opening Day. Add this onto the fact that Utley played a month longer than normal in 2008, had surgery, rehabbed from it and then played in all put six games in 2009…

Yeah, he’s whipped.

Need proof? Look at how Utley finished the season. With a 0-for-2 on Saturday, Utley ended the year hitless in his last five games and 17 at-bats. Actually, Utley finished 2009 with a 3-for-37.

Notably, Utley hit just two homers in September/October and none since Sept. 12.

Though Utley finished the season in an ugly slump, Ryan Howard solidified himself as the team’s MVP by capturing the RBI crown for the third time of his career with 141 and belted 45 homers.

So for the third year in a row, Howard slugged at least 45 homers and got 140 RBIs—only Sammy Sosa and Babe Ruth have done that in Major League Baseball history.

No, Howard is not the top MVP candidate in the NL. That’s Albert Pujols all the way. But since the end of May, Howard improved every month culminating with a final month where the lefty slugger batted .302.

And whereas Utley can’t buy a hit, Howard has a hit in 10 of his last 11 games.

Still, the fifth-most winningest team in franchise history heads into the playoffs with more holes than a slice of domestic Swiss. There are just so many question marks and they all are fairly significant. From the injuries to the offensive production. From the end of the ‘pen to the middle of the order.

So many questions and so little time… it starts for real on Wednesday.

Look out for the flying bugs, it's the playoffs!

If I recall correctly, the Phillies and the Yankees were the chic pick for the World Series. Actually, I’m not sure if “chic” is the correct word since I may have been the only one to make that prediction. As it turned out, both the Yankees and the Phillies went out of the playoffs in the first round. The Phillies met their demise when their powerful offense went cold, while the Yankees were attacked and done in by a swarm of gnats in Cleveland.

But isn't that always the way it turns out in Cleveland?

The truth is it takes a lot more than quiet bats and flying bugs to stop me. Rather, this year I'm going to put myself back out on that limb and make my picks. Just to make it a little more fun for everyone involved, I asked a bunch of my freaky friends about how they see things playing out.

Here it is:

John Finger - shepherd/CSN.com NLDS Phillies over Brewers in 4 Cubs over Dodgers in 4

ALDS Angels over Red Sox in 5 White Sox over Rays in 4

NLCS Cubs over Phillies in 6

ALCS White Sox over Angels in 7

World Series White Sox over Cubs in 7

I made these picks without irony though I see how funny it is that the Cubs could make it to the World Series for the first time in half a century only to lose to the team on the other side of town.

Laugh it up...

John Gonzalez - columnist/Philadelphia Inquirer NLDS Phils over Brewers Cubs over Dodgers

ALDS Rays over White Sox Angels over Red Sox

NLCS Phils over Cubs

ALCS Angels over Rays

World Series Angels over Phils

I really want to pick the WS the other way. Years of conditioning, I guess.

Kevin Horan - writer/Phillies.com NLDS Phillies over Brewers  Dodgers over Cubs

ALDS Rays over White Sox Angels over Red Sox

NLCS Dodgers over Phillies

ALCS Angels over Rays

World Series: Dodgers over Angels 

Bob Ford - the best sports columnist in America/Philadelphia Inquirer NLDS Phils over Brewers Dodgers over Cubs

ALDS  Angels over Red Sox Chisox over Rays

NLCS Dodgers over Phillies

ALCS Angels over White Sox

World Series  Angels over Dodgers

Stephen Miller - Phillies beat writer/Allentown Morning Call NLDS Phillies over Brewers in four games Cubs over Dodgers in four games

ALDS Angels over Red Sox in five games Rays over White Sox in four games

NLCS Cubs over Phillies in six games

ALCS Angels over Rays in six games

World Series Angels over Cubs in seven games

Just remember, I'm the guy who picked the Tigers to win the World Series before this season. Oh, wait. Let's just forget that.

Ryan Lawrence (a.k.a. RyLaw) - Phillies Beat writer/Delaware County Daily Times

NLDS Dodgers vs. Cubs Cubs in 5 Carlos Zambrano, not good. Everyone else on the Cubs, good. Manny is Manny and underrated Dodgers nearly get the Cubs' goat. 

But the magic of Wrigley prevails, even if Captain Curt doesn't believe in those high class strippers Mystique and Aura. (Personally, I think they're kinda hot).

NLDS Phils vs. Brewers Phils in 4 Milwaukee's best look like Phils Version '07. Cole Hamels, good. Brett Myers, not so much - but Happ to the rescue. Joe Blanton, yikes. Phils bats, however, batter Brewers pitching staff that's 11 CCs short of respectable. 

ALDS Red Sox vs. Angels Angels in 4 Boston too banged up for this prognosticator's liking. J.D. Drew is hurt, huh. Really? REALLY? I like the Sox pitching, but Delco's best manager (Scioscia) likes the idea of an all-LA World Series, so he can stick it to the Dodgers, who had zero interest in hiring him and have hired 43 managers since. Angels pitching, good.

ALDS White Sox vs Yankees...err...my bad, no New York teams made it this year. Sad. White Sox vs. Rays Sox in 3 I like the Rays, I really do. But can you pick against Jim Thome. He's a nice fella. I'm not picking against that guy. I'm watching him on TV now. He's just NICE. White Sox bullpen, good. Despite the play of the best third baseman in baseball, Evan Longoria, Rays are deer in headlights.

NLCS Cubs vs. Phillies Cubs in 7 I feverishly begin writing my Game 1 World Series preview - 'Say Hello to 17-game winner Gavin Floyd' - in hopes of a Phils-Sox series that would have more story lines than a soap opera starring Lindsay Lohan and Brett Favre. But the Cubbies send me to an early vacation, and I raise a few Old Style Lights in Wrigleyville. Brad Lidge blows Game 7 win by serving up walk-off homer to Alfonso Soriano.

ALCS White Sox vs. Angels Sox in 4 Sorry, Scoscia, Dodgers are dead. So is your team, which hasn't had much of a pulse since clinching the division in June. White Sox ride the Rockies-like wave, clinching at the very last moment and running off on a win parade, which is scaring the Bartmans out of the North Siders. Chants of "1908, 1908" begin as riots begin when Sox fans invade Wrigleyville. Phils beat writers watch as Ken gets bloodied in the battle. Fun times.

World Series Cubs vs. White Sox Sox in 7 The White Sox come in with a 10-game winning streak. While Fox is showing constant highlights of Bartman and the goat (the goat also likes Old Style Light, apparently), there is a growing group of among baseball fans that are suddenly sick of the idea of the Cubs collecting their first crown in 100 years. Jim Thome is a nice guy, damnit.... and this Griffey character also seems swell. Two Hall of Famers who don't need to go down like Ted Williams.

Sox win first game, sending the Cell's crowd in a frenzy. But Cubs take next two, ending the 11-game win streak and slowing the suicide rate on the North Side for a weekend. After Floyd evens the series up, Rich Harden fires a two-hit shutout - Cubs up 3-2 in the series.

But Jeanne Zelasko somehow allows the goat to escape in an exclusive pregame interview outside The Cell. The goat takes off, hops on the 'L' and gets off at the Addison stop.

Before Game 6, the goat slips a five-spot in the drunken security guard's hand (the guard thought the Cubs already won the whole shebang). The goat is on the field! The goat it on the field!

While the goat begins eating the ivy off Wrigley's hallowed walls (can walls be hallowed?), a sure-fire Jim Thome double-play ground ball goes right through Ryan Theriot's legs in the 7th inning. The Cubs 4-1 lead shrinks to 4-3.

The goat ate too much ivy. Not good. The goat leaves a special gift (it's browner and smellier than the remnants of that stuff Len Dykstra spit up here 15 years ago).

At the same time, Griffey takes Kerry Wood deep in the bottom of the ninth. White Sox win, 5-4.

In GAME 7, Cubs are lifeless after WGN airs news report on the goat defecating on their field. Gavin Floyd throws first career no-hitter as Sox clinch World Series title.

This is strictly for entertainment purposes.... please do not bet on the goat shitting. He might hurl instead.

Scott Lauber - Phillies beat writer/Wilmington News Journal NLDS Phillies-Brewers: Phillies in 4. CC can't start every game, right? Right? Cubs-Dodgers: Cubs in 5. Manny can't bat in every inning, right? Right?

ALDS Angels-Red Sox: Angels in 5. I love watching the Red Sox lose. Rays-White Sox: White Sox in 5. So many ex-Phillies (Gavin Floyd, Jim Thome), they can't lose.

NLCS Cubs-Phillies: Cubs in 7. At least the Phillies can drown their sorrows at The Lodge.

ALCS Angels-White Sox: Angels in 5. They're good. Real good. 

World Series Cubs-Angels: Angels in 7. Neither Bartman nor the Billy Goat were there, so the Cubs blamed Brad Lidge.

Jason Weitzel - proprietor/Beerleaguer.com NLDS Phillies over Brewers in 5 Cubs over Dodgers in 4

ALCS Red Sox over Angels in 5 White Sox over Rays in 4

NLCS Cubs over Phillies in 6

ALCS Red Sox over White Sox in 7

World Series Red Sox over Cubs in 5

Just getting there not enough

As far as zaniness goes in the wake of NL East-clinching celebration on Saturday night at the Bank, Chris Coste took top honors when he zipped around the field on a borrowed (at least we hope so) police bicycle. Other than Coste’s tomfoolery, the celebration was slightly muted. Oh sure, Brett Myers took perverse pleasure dousing anyone and everyone with beer and Pat Burrell made sure his bulldog, Elvis, made it to the party.

Otherwise, the Phillies acted as if clinching celebrations was old hat. After all, last year’s wild bash was 14 years in the making and it took the Phillies until the very last day of the season to sew it up. This year manager Charlie Manuel retreated to his office after the game while the party simmered in the clubhouse and out on the field.

Only when the remaining fans called for him with an echoing chant of, “CHARLIE! CHARLIE! CHARLIE!” did the manager work his way back out to the field to tip his cap and celebrate ever so briefly with his players.

Been there, done that appeared to be the theme as the celebration quickly morphed into a neighborhood cocktail party. Though pulling off the repeat wasn’t easy, the Phillies believe there is much to prove during the second season.

“I think we got a little taste last year of it, short and sweet,” Chase Utley said. “There's a lot of focus, a lot of drive, a lot of intensity. We're definitely not done.”

Last year the Phillies were finished in the playoffs pretty quickly. In fact, the team barely got warmed up before the Colorado Rockies sent them packing in three straight. Utley, in particular, went through some growing pains in his first playoffs where he struck out four times on just 13 pitches in Game 1.

It wasn’t just Utley who had trouble, either. In three games the Phillies collected just 16 hits and batted .172 with 26 strikeouts. Of the eight runs the Phils scored during the series, five came on solo homers.

“We didn't really know what to expect going into the playoffs last year,” Utley said. “This year, you have more of an understanding of how everything works. It's no different, it's still baseball. You have to prepare and go out there every day. I never played baseball in October before last year.”

Shortstop Jimmy Rollins says the Phillies worked so hard just to get into the playoffs last season that once they got there they didn’t have much left.

“I think we were so hell bent on that and so focused to win the division that we kind of ran out of steam heading into the playoffs,” Rollins said. “There's no such thing as pacing yourself, but we know that there is more than just winning the division. We won the division last year and three games later we were watching with everyone else. We don't want that to happen again, so we'll be a little more under control and hopefully bring home a championship.”

There is a big difference between the maiden voyage in 2007 and the return trip in 2008. For one thing, every player expected to be on the playoff roster – except Geoff Jenkins and Chad Durbin – have post-season experience. Better yet, six players (Brad Lidge, Eric Bruntlett, Tadahito Iguchi, So Taguchi, Pedro Feliz and Scott Eyre) have appeared in the World Series.

For a change, the Phillies will have experience as an asset.

“Our focus is different this year,” Howard said. “This is the first step, making the playoffs. We didn’t like the feeling [of losing] last year, but we got the experience. We know what to expect this year.”

In fact, manager Charlie Manuel says there won’t be a repeat of last season.

“Believe me – we’re going to go farther in the playoffs than we did last year,” Manuel said.

Nevertheless, the Phillies still don’t know who they will play come Wednesday in Philadelphia. Though Cole Hamels will get a second consecutive Game 1 start in the NLDS, the Phillies must wait for the Brewers and the Mets to settle the wild-card race. If the Mets survive to make the playoffs after blowing a 3 ½ games lead in the NL East just two weeks ago, the Phillies will host the Los Angeles Dodgers.

But if the Brewers come out on top, they will head to Philadelphia to open the playoffs with the memory of the four-game sweep that led to manager Ned Yost’s firing still fresh in their minds.

Manuel says the Phillies matchup pretty well against either the Brewers or Dodgers.

“It doesn’t really matter. All the teams we play we match up well against them,” Manuel said. “The Cubs have a lot of right-handed pitchers and our left-handed hitters match up against them. It doesn’t really matter to me who we play. We’ll see.

“I’m really looking forward to it.”

Jenkins, who had been ranked fourth amongst active players in games played without a playoff appearance, spent the first decade of his career with the Brewers. Needless to say, the irony of facing his old team when he finally gets to the playoffs was not lost on Jenkins.

“I’ve been waiting to get into the postseason for so long. It's just a happy, unbelievable feeling about getting here. I'm just excited about keeping it going,” Jenkins said. “You picture how it might be, but until you go through it, you can't even picture how great this is.”

Yeah, the Phillies already know. Now they want to find out just how much better it can be.

“We all have a little experience at this,” Rollins said. “We can hopefully go a little further into the playoffs. We know winning the division doesn’t guarantee you anything. It just means you have a chance to go win the World Series.”

The second trip starts Wednesday.

Long road back

By now we have heard all about the resiliency of the Phillies. They started the season poorly, winning just one of their first seven games and two of their first nine. As the season progressed the club was plagued with injuries, bad luck and other oddball maladies that often send the average ballclub spiraling down the standings.

Finally, the Phillies looked as if they were ready to fall off the ledge trailing the Mets by seven games with 17 to play before streaking past and into the playoffs.

Yadda, yadda, yadda.

It looks as if once the slate was wiped clean the Phillies got off to yet another slow start. That’s just so typical of these Charlie Manuel-managed teams.

But here we are now. Once again the Phillies are in an all-too familiar position with their backs against the wall. This time, though, they seem to be facing the wrong opponent. At this exact moment, the Colorado Rockies might be the best team in baseball. Yes, there have been a few teams that won the World Series by accident, like the 2006 Cardinals. But no team wins 16 of its last 17 games on a lark.

Actually, listening to the Rockies’ Matt Holliday explain it, there really isn’t much to his team’s ridiculous winning streak.

“We just came in and keep playing,” he said. “We don't really talk about what we have to do – we need to get one, we need to get two, we need to get whatever. Just every day, go out there, play hard, play the game the right way.”

On the other hand, the Phillies know exactly what they have to do… better yet, they know what they cannot do. If the Phillies lose one more game the whole thing comes to a grinding halt. Just like that – poof! – it will be all over.

Or, it could be another one of those crazy comebacks that have defined this team all season long.

The odds are long, though. Of the 84 five-game series in Major League Baseball history, here are the seven teams to overcome a 2-0 deficit followed by their fate later in the post-season:

• 1981 Dodgers over the Astros – Dodgers won the NLCS in five over the Expos; won the World Series in six games over the Yankees.
• 1982 Brewers over the Angels – Brewers lost Game 7 of the World Series to the Cardinals.
• 1984 Padres over the Cubs – Padres lost World Series in five games to the Tigers
• 1995 Mariners over the Yankees – Mariners lost ALCS to the Indians.
• 1999 Red Sox over the Indians – Red Sox lost in ALCS to the Yankees.
• 2001 Yankees over the A’s – Yankees beat Mariners in ALCS in five games; lost to Diamondbacks in World Series in seven.
• 2003 Red Sox over the A’s – Red Sox lost ALCS in seven games to Yankees.

The 2001 Yankees are the only team to lose the first two games of a five-game series at home before going on to win the series.

*** More to come later... I have a Jamie Moyer story to finish, a radio show to do and some packing for a flight to Denver. After that, this wannabe Coloradoan will give some insights on the area for the east-coast flatlanders heading out for the rest of the series.

*** Last night's story: Manuel's Call to Lohse in Game 2 Backfires

Calling audibles

Busy, busy, busy, busy day today for 50 percent of CSN.com (which is moi). There are tons of stories to follow, tons of things to write and tons of ideas floating around in the ol’ coconut atop my shoulders. Unfortunately there will never be time enough to write them all down until all of this is over. Perhaps then…

In the meantime, general manager Pat Gillick spent a revealing hour with the writers this afternoon, waxing on about the season, the bullpen and the team’s crazy drive for the NL East… amongst other topics.

In a season in which the Phillies were besieged by injuries to key players, the Gillick says he and Lieutenants Ruben Amaro and Mike Arbuckle were scrambling to find players simply to fill out the space on the roster. Strangely enough, some of those players stepped up, as they say.

Big time.

“It’s kind of like walking to the line and calling an audible,” Gillick said. “We called a lot of audibles.”

A couple of those audibles ended up working out. For instance when veteran starting pitchers Jon Lieber and Freddy Garcia were lost for the season with injuries – a cost of at least 20-to-25 wins, Gillick says – rookie Kyle Kendrick and oft-released J.D. Durbin picked up the slack.

“We got 16 wins out of two guys we didn’t expect to be here,” Gillick said. “Kyle was 4-7 at Double-A, but he was good. [However] we didn’t know he was ready to do this.”

Kendrick, of course, is slated to start Game 2 of the NLDS on Thursday afternoon against the Rockies. I know it’s a theme that I keep harping on, but I think it’s very significant that Kendrick won 10 games and was the team’s best pitcher for a stretch, despite pitching in just 12 games above Single-A.

Never mind the fact that Kendrick, apparently, was not even worthy of an invitation to spring training.

“We were in a desperate situation and we had some opportunities for some guys and they stepped up,” Gillick said.

Gillick also contributed a bit of unintentional levity during the Q&A session. When asked if cobbling together a team on the fly for the run at the division title was fun, Gillick gave a terse, stone-faced reply.

“No,” he said. “It’s not fun at all.”

Well… maybe it’s not fun for him, but the rest of us had a blast. From the looks of it, things are just beginning, too.

How far can they go? An e-mailer sent me the odds (via bodog.com) regarding the Phillies’ chances in the playoffs as seen by the gambling types and it’s worth nothing that the local nine is given a 7-to-1 chance to win the World Series.

It’s also worth noting that amongst all eight teams in the playoffs, that figure is sixth best… bit it’s second-best (behind the Cubs) in the National League. Of the four teams in the NL side of the bracket, the Phillies are a 5-to-2 bet to win the pennant.

Before walking out of the press box tonight, I took a quick poll of the straggling scribes putting the finishing touches on stories that are sure to make Heywood Hale Broun jealous… if he were alive.

Here’s what I was told:

Howard Bryant – ESPN: Phillies vs. Yankees in World Series Jim Salisbury – Philadelphia Inquirer: Phillies in 5 Dennis Deitch – Delaware County Daily Times: The winner of the Phillies-Rockies series will go to the World Series Scott Lauber – Wilmington News Journal: Phillies in 5; Phillies vs. Yankees in World Series. John Finger – Comcast SportsNet: Phillies in 4; Diamondbacks vs. Yankees in the World Series…

Hey, I’m going out on a limb. I like to go against the grain even though it might not be what I believe.

More from the ballpark tomorrow morning… we’re going to go live during the game, again.

NLDS roster set

The Phillies set their playoff roster and there is a surprise or two mixed in. Instead of going with 11 pitchers, the Phils have opted to go with 10. Adam Eaton and Geoff Geary are out, but Jose Mesa is in. To round out the 25, the club decided to go with three catchers. Here’s who the Phillies will be sending out there for Wednesday’s opener of the NLDS:

Pitchers Antonio Alfonseca; Clay Condrey; Tom Gordon; Cole Hamels; Kyle Kendrick; Kyle Lohse; Jose Mesa; Jamie Moyer; Brett Myers; J.C. Romero

Catchers Rod Barajas; Chris Coste; Carlos Ruiz

Infielders Greg Dobbs; Wes Helms; Ryan Howard; Tadahito Iguchi; Abraham Nunez; Jimmy Rollins; Chase Utley

Outfielders Michael Bourn; Pat Burrell; Aaron Rowand; Shane Victorino; Jayson Werth

Check out the full story here: Phillies to Go with 10 Pitchers in NLDS More: Phillies Feeling Loose and Ready to Go

Setting a course

A few industrious types learned that Wednesday’s opener of the NLDS would be at the Bank at 3:30 p.m. and that all of the games of the series would start during the daytime hours. That was wrong.

Instead, the first two games of the series (set for Wednesday and Thursday) will begin at 3 p.m. After a travel day on Friday, the series will shift to either Petco Park in San Diego or Coors Field in Denver for a 9:30 p.m. Eastern Time start. If Game 4 is necessary, it will occur at 10:00 p.m. on Sunday night from either Coors or Petco.

The deciding Game 5 (if needed), will be in Philadelphia next Tuesday at 6:30 p.m.

All of the games will be broadcast on television on TBS with Don Orsillo, and Joe Simpson calling the action from the booth, while the Inquirer’s David Aldridge offers insight as the field reporter.

Not exactly Howard and Dandy Don in the booth, but whatever... it's just the NLDS.

What’s going to happen? About a month-and-a-half ago I thought the Padres had a really good chance to come out of the National League and go to the World Series. The Padres’ pitching, as I noted, was simply too good.

But even the Padres can’t win games 1-0. The team’s offense, simply, is a problem. Against a streaking club like the Rockies (winners of 12 of their last 13) the Padres, Phillies, Cubs or Diamondbacks could be given fits. Since the wild card was instituted, the streaking team has gone all the way a few times. I’m sure Phillies fans remember those 2003 Florida Marlins.

This time of year the philosophy is easy to understand. As Aaron Rowand said the other day (and I keep using incessantly), if you win you get to keep playing.

Nonetheless, I won’t be surprised if the Phillies get swept in the first round or go all the way to the World Series.

Phillies vs. Yankees in the World Series? Diamondbacks vs. Red Sox? Does anyone think the Cubs have a chance?

*** I noticed that the fans at Coors are chanting, “M-V-P!” whenever Matt Holliday comes to the plate. Little do the fans know, but the BBWAA ballots were due in last night… it seems as if Holliday will finish in the top two in the balloting.

Hamels in Game 1 I’m not sure if it’s official, but after Sunday’s clincher I asked Cole Hamels what it would mean to him to get the ball in Game 1 of the NLDS. In his excitement, he just kind of said some stuff about being “excited” and that he’s “ready to go.” Plus, the ink on my notebook ran and smeared because of the champagne and beer that soaked it during the post-game events yesterday.

However, there is one sentence that is clear and very decipherable beneath the Hamels notation in my book:

“I can’t wait to get started.”

Which one? Coors or Petco? The only Major League Baseball game my 3-year old son ever attended was at Coors Field during the 2005 season. I mixed a little pleasure with some trade-deadline action that trip and can vividly recall Charlie Manuel sitting in the visitors’ dugout before the game and telling stories about how he had to kill snakes along with some other country life vs. nature tales.

I was riveted by Charlie’s stories because despite coming from Lancaster, Pa., I am about as urban/suburban as it gets. Rugged for me is starting the lawn mower without putting on a pair of thick, leather "work" gloves.

As such, we get out to Colorado as much as possible. If I won the Powerball today, I would be on a plane headed for Denver and Estes Park tomorrow.

But I’ve never been to San Diego. In fact, people tell me it’s heaven on earth. Every day the weather is a perfect 70 degrees and everyone is happy and pleasant all day long. Though the German’s called it San Diego and scholars are unsure what the word means, it is doubtful that the name will be changed to Xanadu.

It would be neat to see if all the stories are true.

Stay classy.

Step right up and beat the Mets Piling on is just mean. That’s why I’m not going to add anymore cheap shots to the barrage the Mets and their fans are taking right now. That just ain’t cool. Besides, from the sounds of things, the Mets are taking a beating from all of the vultures in the NYC press.

Nonetheless, Mets’ GM Omar Minaya issued an apology to the fans, today. That’s nice, but it doesn’t get the team an extra game in the standings.

An interesting thing regarding the Mets is what is going to become of Tom Glavine now that he is a free agent. Remember when Glavine considered signing with the Phillies or the Mets a few years back? As I recall, Glavine chose the Mets because he didn’t think he would fit in with all the young players in Philadelphia… seems to me that 44-year old family man Jamie Moyer figured out how to fit in just fine.

Nevertheless, if yesterday was Glavine’s last game for the Mets, it was a rotten way to go out.

A picture is worth a thousand words

Phillies vs. Mets on Monday?

Cole Hamels is in the bullpen warming up, the fans are filtering into the sold-out ballpark and the oppressive humid has finally broken and given way to a decidedly autumnal tinge.

It feels like playoff baseball time[1].

Meanwhile, the word filtered down from New York City that despite all of the bluster to the contrary, the Mets have resigned themselves to participating in a playoff game in Philadelphia on Monday. If such an event were to occur, people will need tickets for the game. So when and if a playoff game is scheduled for Monday and/or Tuesday, the Phillies announced they will sell tickets.

Here’s the Phillies’ announcement:

In order to prepare and plan, the Phillies are announcing that tickets will go on public sale once the tie-breaking game has been deemed necessary.

Full season ticket holders (81 games) have been mailed their locations. Season ticket holders and E-Mail Club members will be offered the opportunity to purchase tie-breaker tickets in advance of the public sale.

Tickets may be purchased on Sunday (once a game has been deemed necessary) via the following outlets:

ONLINE: www.phillies.com.

When ordering via the internet, the Phillies suggest choosing the convenient “print at home” option. Access to the internet is available 24 hours a day.

PHONE CENTER: (215) 463-1000. Again, once the game has been deemed necessary, the Phone Center will be open Sunday until 10:00 p.m. . . . Phone lines will open again at 8:00 a.m. on Monday.

The Phillies suggest fans choose the “print at home” option or pick up their will call tickets well in advance of the game, either Sunday night or early Monday morning.

IN PERSON: Two Citizens Bank Park locations: (1) First Base Gate ticket windows (on Pattison Avenue) and (2) West ticket windows (on Citizens Bank Way, adjacent to the Majestic Clubhouse Store). Hours: Sunday until 10:00 p.m. The ticket windows will reopen at 8:00 a.m. on Monday.

***

Speaking of the New York Mets, there was a helluva quote in the Oct. 1, 2007 edition of the New York Observer from a story written by John Koblin. In the story headlined, “Gutsy Mr. Metsie,” all about how Mets’ skipper Willie Randolph is dealing with his team’s “September Swoon,” veteran lefty pitcher Tom Glavine is on the record saying:

“Sometimes when you’re a team as talented as we are—I don’t know if I’d use the word ‘bored,’ but I guess you can get complacent sometimes. You don’t pay attention to details every now and then because you do have a ton of talent and think you can on most days do everything you wanna do.”

So the Mets are collapsing because they are so good? They haven’t been paying attention to details?

I wonder if their curiosity has been piqued now?

---

[1] Not that most of us in the Phillies’ writing press corps actually knows what “playoff baseball” feels like. A lot of us have floated out into unchartered waters.

[2] a.k.a: a choke job of epic proportions

Are they trying to lose on purpose? Part deux

I heard David Wright, the third baseman, on the radio this morning talking about how his Mets’ teammates haven’t “made off-season plans yet.” At least I think it was the radio – at this point it’s really hard to decipher the voices in my head from the ones coming out of mechanical devices. I wish I was being funny, but I’m not… I feel like Apu Nahasapeemapetilon at the end of a 36-hour shift at the Kwik-E-Mart. Remember that? He thought he was a hummingbird.

Anyway, I don’t think Wright was trying to be funny about the plans for the off-season quote, either. However, he might feel like he and the Mets are caught in a swarm of hummingbirds as those little bleepers dive in and out with the hearts and wings racing a hundred-miles per second as they try to poke his eyes out.

In this scenario the Phillies are the hummingbirds. They are ravenous and beatific all at the same time. They are also tied for first place in the NL East with just three games to go in the season because the Mets just can’t win a game when it matters.

I just can’t get over the fact that if the Mets had been able to beat the lowly Washington Nationals at home in just one of the three games this week, this would all be over. The Mets would be making plans for where to stay on the road in the NLDS instead of hearing manager Willie Randolph tear into them like a wolverine on greenies in a post-game tirade following the team’s loss to the Cardinals last night. Heading into tonight’s action, the Mets have won just three of their last 13 games and they have lost seven games in a row at cranky old Shea Stadium.

It was also during those 13 games that the Mets’ lead over the Phillies shrank from seven games to nothing. Imagine that… seven to zero in two weeks! It's like those ads for those crazy diet pills in which they claim a person can lose 25 pounds in four hours. But, if one day you’re hanging out with some friends and the topic of rock-solid, sure-footing in the NL East standings is broached, you can say, “Yeah, well, I once saw the Mets blow a seven-game lead with just 16 games to go.

“It was ridiculous. It was like they were waiting around to lose[1].”

Stunning. It's all so stunning.

Anyway, I also heard an announcer proclaim on the radio this morning[2] like and antebellum preacher that, “This isn’t a choke… This is a COLLAPSE!”

Unlike Wright, the announcer was trying to be funny. At least I think he was trying to be funny. But he seemed like one of those types of people that believed everything he said. He measured every word so that it would be significant, though you could hear it in his voice – he was worried. The hummingbirds were diving in like little, tiny P-51 Mustang fighter planes and a rolled up newspaper used to swat the pests away was hardly a defense.

So this is what it has come down to for the Phillies and Mets. The three games this weekend determine which team will play on in the post-season and which team will have to scramble to cobble together some off-season plans. Interestingly, too, is that that the Mets and Phillies are matched up against the two worst teams in their division. The Phillies host the Nationals this weekend, who are fresh off a three-game sweep over the Mets at Shea and are feeling pretty groovy because they did not lose 100 games this season. Everyone thought the Nats (72-87) would drop 110; instead they have a chance to not lose 90.

Meanwhile, the Mets entertain the Florida Marlins, which, coincidentally enough, is the only team they have managed to beat in the last two weeks. Like the Nats, the Marlins won’t lose 100 either. But unlike the Nats, this feat isn’t going to go down as any type of success. Heading into the season, the Marlins thought they had what it took to challenge the Mets, Phillies and Braves atop the division standings, but things just kinda didn’t work out.

Who will things work out for this weekend? Or, will things work out so well (or badly) for both teams that they will have to come back a day after the season ends to sort it all out?

***

Talked to Aaron Rowand, the center fielder, after last night’s game and offered a query whether this Phillies’ club had any similarities with the World Champion 2005 Chicago White Sox. Rowand, of course, was an integral player on that team, which was known for having fun and being colorful in the press. It also seems as if that White Sox team was a lot like a college fraternity, but not like the one that held toga parties or socials with the sororities. No, this frat was more like the one that held illegal off-campus keggers, built bonfires that weren’t easy to extinguish, and had a member who knew how to make home-made M-80s if he could ever locate the 50 milligrams of flash powder.

So when asked if this tight-knit Phillies bunch was like the 2005 champs, Rowand didn’t hesitate.

“No doubt,” he said emphatically.

“This is the second team I’ve been on where the group comes together. We all have the same goal and it’s special,” he said. “Whether we win or not it’s a special season.”

But all things being equal, he’d rather win.

---

[1] This is part of quote from Mets’ catcher Paul Lo Duca, who told reporters after Wednesday night’s loss that, “Seems to me like we’re all waiting to lose.” I’m using it to be clever. I think it worked, but I haven’t gone back to re-read any of this yet. Perhaps I’ll just finish writing this and go off to take a nap without the re-read? Hey, it was funny once – why ruin a moment for myself?

[2] At least I think it was this morning… does the post-1 a.m. drive back to Lancaster count as this morning? Technically, yes, it was this morning. But I always played by the rule that the day wasn’t over until I had gone to bed. Is this a common train of thought?

Sorting it all out

OK. Go find a quiet room, sit in a comfortable chair and clear your head from any and all distractions. I’m going to attempt to explain how the playoff tiebreakers will work if the Phillies don’t surge past the Mets to win the NL East.

I’m not kidding – you have to concentrate on this.

Ready? Here we go:

We all know how a tiebreaker would work if two teams are deadlocked at the end of the season, but what happens if the season ends and three or four teams are tied for first place in the wild-card race.

Truth be told, I didn’t know.

But I found out.

But first, here’s the basic stuff: if the Mets and Phillies end the regular season tied atop the NL East, there would be a one-game playoff Monday here at the Bank to determine the division champion.

Likewise, if the Phillies finish the season tied with either the Rockies or Padres for the wild card, the Phillies would play the one-game playoff on the road as determined by a coin toss earlier this month.

But suppose the Phillies finish the season tied with two of the three teams in the hunt in the NL West (Padres, D’backs, Rockies). In that case, there would be an “A,B,C” tiebreaker, which goes like this:

The team with the best record against the other two teams gets to decide whether it wants to be Team A, B or C. The team with the second-best record gets to chose one of the two remaining spots and then, Team A would host Team B on Monday, and the winner of that game would host Team C on Tuesday.

The winner of Tuesday’s game wins the wild card.

So here’s how it stands now:

The Phillies are 7-7 against the Padres and Rockies; the Padres were 11-14 against the Phillies and Rockies; while the Rockies were 14-11 against the other two clubs. This means the Rockies would get to chose which letter they wanted to be and the Phillies would get second pick.

Logically, it seems, the Rockies would not want to play two games in order to go to the playoffs, so unless they get a brain cramp like that coach in overtime football game on Thanksgiving a few years back who won the coin toss and elected to kickoff, the Rockies will elect to be Team C.

With second choice, the Phillies would take the Team A slot and would host the Padres on Monday and if they survived that game, they would face the Rockies at the Bank on Tuesday to determine the wild-card winner.

The monkey wrench is if the Padres or Rockies overtake the Diamondbacks for first place in the NL West to send them back into the wild-card mix. But either way, as long as the Phillies continue to win games, they will be playing baseball in October.

Got it?

But what if something really weird happens and Phillies, Mets, Rockies, Diamondbacks and Padres all finish with the same record.

• On Monday, the Mets and Phillies would play to determine the division champion. The loser falls into the wild-card mix and would play Wednesday against whichever other teams in the wild-card pile-up.

• The three N.L. West teams would play an A/B/C tie-breaker, with the winner emerging as the division champion.

• The two losers will join the Mets in another A/B/C tie-breaker, to be played Wednesday and Thursday, with the winner of that capturing the wild card.

If all else fails, the National League’s representatives in the post-season will be determined by a rock, paper, scissors round-robin.

Double trouble for the Phils?

Tim Hudson and John Smoltz. Could the Phillies have asked for a worse pairing in their most important series in recent memory? In order to avoid another winter spent lamenting the chances that got away during the past six months, the Phillies have to beat Hudson tonight and then Smoltz tomorrow.

Impossible?

Maybe.

Then again, maybe not.

The Phillies do have the top offense in the league, afterall. Can a good offense beat good pitching? The Phillies better hope so. After all, Hudson might get a Cy Young vote or two. At 16-9 with 3.34 ERA, Hudson has been the team’s co-ace with Smoltz and ranks in the top 10 in the league in wins (5th), innings pitched (3rd), ERA (8th), WHIP (8th) and winning percentage (10th).

Regardless, the Phillies have had some success against Hudson this season, including tuning him up for five runs and 11 hits in five innings in the game in which the Phillies took a six-run lead into the eighth inning.

Yeah, that game.

Smoltz, meanwhile, is one of the greatest big-game pitchers in recent baseball history. In 1991 he was one of the starting pitchers in the greatest game I had ever watched and, truth be told, is putting the finishing touches on a Hall-of-Fame career.

Better yet, Smoltz is the last of a dying breed of pitcher. When he goes to the mound he’s going to bring the heat and a nasty slider every time. Fascinatingly, Smoltz has been doing the same way since 1989. Since then it has been a pile of 200-plus innings per season, tons of strikeouts a short detour as the best closer in the game all mixed in with 24 playoff series.

Yep, that’s the guy the Phillies have to get past if they want to make it to the playoffs. To counter that, the Phillies will send Kyle Lohse to the mound tonight fresh off a start and a relief appearance in Washington last weekend. Forebodingly, Lohse’s one-inning relieve stint was half as long as his start.

Kyle Kendrick will face Smoltz on Thursday night, which should be interesting for a lot of reasons. The biggest facet is that Smoltz broke into the big leagues when he was 21 after a quick ascent through the minors, kind of like Kendrick. The other point of interest is that when Smoltz broke in to the majors in 1988, Kendrick was a month away from turning four-years old.

Even more interesting than those nuggets is the dichotomy of the pitching styles. Smoltz is a power pitcher who racks up the strikeouts. Kendrick is a sinkerballer, who thrives on grounders and by throwing strikes.

Needless to say, it should be an interesting two days.

Thanks for pointing out the obvious, huh?

Oh wait, there’s more where that came from:

Charlie Manuel: “Our team knows what they have to do. We've been coming back all year, scratching and clawing. We'll keep playing.”

Bobby Cox: “We know what we have to do. We have to win. We'll give it our best shot.”

Chase Utley: “Every game we approach the same way. We try to win. There's no extra pressure added.”

Jimmy Rollins: “We’ve been in this situation for a long time. We have five games left (and) we have to win five games.”

No, I don’t think they got together to rehearse the answers beforehand.

*** For those wondering (and I know you are), I am not off the Floyd beat. For now I’m a little preoccupied with the baseball pennant race and a little bit of music writing. As soon as the work load dissipates a bit, I hope to dive into the post-ruling fray with a new story or two.

In the interim, check out Trust But Verify for everything Floyd.

Tuesday pre-game fodder

Monday’s day off was a long-awaited reward for the Phillies and manager Charlie Manuel. After grinding it out for 10 tough games during the intensity of a pennant race, Manuel needed some chill time. So he spent the evening kicked back in front of the TV set, watching the Padres lose to the Giants and the Mets lose to the Nationals.

“I watched every pitch of the Padres and I watched every pitch of the Mets,” Manuel revealed before Tuesday night’s series opener against the Braves. “I’m thinking about getting the Japanese (baseball) package, too.”

Needless to say, it was quite an enjoyable evening for Manuel, who watched his Phillies pick up a half game in both the division and wild-card races from the comfort of his living room. As a result, the Phillies go into the final, six-game homestand of the regular season all tied up with the Padres, and trailing the Mets by a pair of games.

Meanwhile, the streaking Colorado Rockies are knocking on the door, just a game off the pace while the Braves still have an outside shot down three games with six to go. Baring a monumental collapse, the Phillies are in it to the end.

“We have six games left and I think we know what that means,” Manuel said.

If anything, Manuel says, the Phillies might have an advantage because they get to finish the season at home against the Braves and the lowly Nationals. The Padres have to play the Giants on the road before heading to Milwaukee to close out the season.

Meanwhile, the Rockies go to Los Angeles for three games against the Dodgers, but then return home to face the Diamondbacks and maybe even a Monday playoff game against the Phillies if it comes to that.

The Braves go to Houston to close out the season after the three games in Philadelphia.

So those six straight at home could loom large for the Phillies, right Charlie?

“One of the biggest advantages we have this year is we’re playing at home,” the skipper said. “I think that could be very big for us. We’ve had big crowds all year and the more noise we have, the more energy that brings and the more we get after it.”

The playoffs and potential travel plans as well as the possibility of a tiebreaking playoff game were a few the popular topics of conversation amongst the baseball scribes on Monday afternoon, with the consensus agreeing that it could come down to a game against the Rockies at Coors to determine the final four National League teams.

Manuel’s future But another underlying theme was Manuel’s status as manager for next season and beyond with the Phillies. With the Philadelphia Daily News reporting that general manager Pat Gillick would not seek a contract extension when his current deal expires after the 2008 season, and Manuel’s contract set to expire at the end of this season, there has been a little scuttlebutt regarding the skipper’s status. After all, Manuel has exceeded expectations this season by leading a team ravaged by injuries to first place in the wild-card race in the last week of the season. Moreover, only Pat Moran, the Phillies’ manager from 1915 to 1918, won more games in his first three seasons than Manuel.

So Charlie, has Gillick – or the Phillies’ brass – broached the subject of an extension?

“No, not at all,” he said. “Matter of fact it’s alright. I want to stay focused on our team. It’s not about me. It’s about our team and it’s about winning. I don’t have time to worry about anything else.”

In fact, Manuel says he doesn’t have the slightest inkling about what is going to happen.

“I don’t know anything about that until I sit down with him and that won’t happen until the off season,” the manager said.

In other words, the future is now for Manuel.

Rotation set And as such, Manuel has made the proper adjustment to his team’s pitching rotation for the final sprint. Adam Eaton, the much-maligned starting pitcher whose 6.36 ERA ranks last amongst the league’s starters, was informed during a lengthy pre-batting practice conversation that he will pitch on Saturday afternoon against the Nats, instead of taking his regularly scheduled turn on Thursday night against John Smoltz.

That means rookie Kyle Kendrick will pitch on Thursday instead of Friday, and Cole Hamels will go on Friday instead of Saturday afternoon.

Lining it up this way, the Phillies can use Hamels in Game 1 of the NLDS on regular rest… if it comes to that.

Needless to say, Manuel explained that the Phillies haven’t planned that far ahead, but simply “was the best way for us to go.” That’s how Manuel says he explained it to Eaton, who also faced the Nationals in his last start on Friday night in Washington where he gave up three runs on five hits, five walks and two hit batsmen in just five innings.

“He took it fine. He’s OK,” Manuel said of what looked like a decidedly one-sided conversation. “We have to wins some games now. I don’t want somebody to say I didn’t tell them something. I have no problem telling anybody anything. We actually had a pretty good talk.”

Et cetera Having used go-to relievers Brett Myers, Tom Gordon and J.C. Romero for five straight games last week, Manuel asked starter Kyle Lohse for a relief stint on Sunday’s game. Set to throw a bullpen session anyway, Manuel asked the newcomer starter to do his bullpen in a game instead.

Though Monday’s day off gave the ‘pen a day to refresh, Manuel said he will look to a starter or two for a relief outing if the opportunity presents itself.

“It depends on what game,” Manuel said. “Lohse is one of those guys that I like to throw an inning because of the stuff he has and his arm. His stuff is why I’d put him in a game.”

*** The Phillies’ rival San Diego suffered an odd injury in the most crucial time when slugging outfield Milton Bradley tore his ACL while being restrained by manager Bud Black during an argument with an umpire. was injured when his own manager spun him to the ground while trying to keep him from going after umpire Mike Winters during an eighth-inning confrontation in Sunday's 7-3 loss to Colorado at Petco Park.

When asked if he had ever injured a player when attempting to restrain him from getting into a confrontation with an umpire, Manuel said, “I don’t know, but I always wanted to.”

When asked if the fiery Milton Bradley was one of those players back when the pair worked together with the Cleveland Indians, Manuel dodged the question.

“No comment,” he smiled.

All square

Just like that, everything has changed. Thank the San Diego Padres inopportune swoon for that. Instead of being forced to chase, the Phillies do not have to win a certain number of games in the final six to make it to the playoffs for the first time since 1993. Actually, all the Phillies have to do is be better than the Padres... Unless, of course, the Phillies lose the series to the Braves. Then they will have to be better than the Padres, Braves and Rockies.

Nevertheless, the whole convoluted mess is rendered moot as long as the Phillies just do one simple thing:

Win.

More later from the ballpark.

Down the stretch they come

WASHINGTON – The Mets had the Heimlich performed last weekend in Florida, just in time to return home to Shea Stadium to host the hapless Nationals for three games. With a 2½ game lead over the Phillies heading into the final week of the season, the Mets have all but wrapped up the NL East. Based on the numbers from Sports Club Stats, the Mets have a 95.7 percent chance to make it to the playoffs. Only a monumental collapse against the Nats, Cards and Marlins can stop them now.

But for the Phillies, it has come down to the last six games. At worst – minimally – the Phillies can go 4-2. But that number comes without taking the Padres’ results into consideration. By going 4-2, the Phillies would force a one-game playoff in San Diego if the Padres limp home at 4-3. And based on last weekend’s showing against Colorado, it’s possible that Padres could be hitting a bad slump at the wrong time.

Still, there is one gnarly-looking monkey wrench that could be thrown in the middle of all of this:

The Atlanta Braves are coming to town.

Here’s a prediction – the Phillies will sweep the Nationals at the Bank in the final series of the season this weekend. Washington is a tired team, with a spent pitching staff and has nothing at stake when they face the Mets and Phillies this week. The team has its bags packed; lockers cleaned out of the ready-to decay RFK Stadium, and are focused on vacations and chilaxin’ while the playoffs rage. Sure, there’s professional pride and all of that stuff (manager Charlie Manuel was quite laudatory to Nats’ skipper Manny Acta for putting his best players out there last weekend), but tired is tired. The Nats look ready for a break.

So that leaves the Braves, who are clinging to the ledge of the playoff race by their fingernails. Standing three games behind the Phillies, the Braves could climb back in the chase with a sweep and some cooperation from the Padres (and Rockies). Most of all, though, the Braves will be happy to knock out the Phillies from contention. With aces Tim Hudson and John Smoltz scheduled to pitch the first two games of the series, the Braves are not coming to town just to play out the string.

Come on, just one more … In just his second start in the last 37 days and first since a three-inning, 65-pitch battle in St. Louis, lefty Cole Hamels looked pretty sharp yesterday’s outing at RFK. In five innings, Hamels allowed just two hits and a pair of walks with six strikeouts. Best of all, Hamels’ fastball looked to have a lot of zip (yeah, zip) on it, which always comes in handy for a guy whose best pitch is a changeup.

But Manuel yanked Hamels out of the game after just five innings because he had thrown 76 pitches. The skipper did this even though Hamels retired the last eight hitters he faced and didn’t seem to be taxing himself all that much in working through his last three innings.

Could Hamels have pitched into the sixth without overextending himself?

Sure, he said... But then again, Hamels acknowledged that he doesn’t exactly have the best history with injuries.

“It's a little difficult to say when they don't let me know what my pitch count is,” Hamels told the writers. “That would be nice. I know my body better than anybody else. I guess that's the whole point in asking. But I think it takes that experience to have the say-so. I think it would be easier for Jamie Moyer to say, 'No, I'm going to go back out there,' than myself.”

Manuel was in one of those damned-if-you-do/damned-if-you-don’t, second-guessing situations that has pretty much defined his three seasons in Philadelphia . But, Manuel explained, Hamels has to be treated very gingerly for the time being.

“Cole is still on a rehab, of course,” Manuel said. “We would have loved to leave him in there.”

So it just figured that as soon as Hamels exited the game, reliever Antonio Alfonseca came in during the sixth and gave the Nats the lead they would never relinquish.

Revisiting Eddie We were even more busy than usual last Thursday when the news of ex-Phillies GM Ed Wade had taken over the same post with the Houston Astros. During an eight-year run that was marked by rebuilding and underachieving, Wade became “a lightning rod for the negativity” at the end of his time with the Phillies.

So when I first heard the news broadcasted over the car radio, I nearly had to pull over so that I could properly decipher the announcement.

Instead, I drove on.

That initial start gave way to rational thought. Of course Ed Wade was going to get another job as a Major League general manager. Why wouldn’t he? Wade is a good “baseball man,” who has given his professional life to the game. He has also worked at just about every job there is in Major League ball, and is generally well-liked all across the profession.

So why wouldn’t he land in another GM position? Guys like Ed Wade always land on their feet, except, of course, when they don’t.

Anyway, Jim Salisbury’s column on Wade in Sunday’s Inquirer was very interesting. You should read it.

Friday pre-game fodder

WASHINGTON – Despite what the schedule reads, there is a lot of baseball remaining in the 2007 season for the Phillies. These final eight games of the year will undoubtedly feel like an eternity. Actually, the defining moment of the year will probably occur between now and Sept. 30. But before Friday night’s game against the Washington Nationals at RFK Stadium, manager Charlie Manuel took the time to reflect on the season so far.

“Basically what we’ve done this year is survive,” the skipper said.

“We have some of the best players in baseball, but we’ve had to fight to survive.”

With just nine games to go the Phillies have done much more than just survive. Despite a bevy of injuries to seemingly every player on the roster, including disabled-list stints for Brett Myers, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Cole Hamels, the Phillies entered Friday’s game just 1½ games behind the New York Mets for first place in the NL East. And if a run at the division title doesn’t work out, there is always the wild-card race in which the Phillies find themselves 2½ games behind the San Diego Padres.

Needless to say, the Phillies are really into the action around the league right now. In fact, after Thursday night’s come-from-behind victory over the Nats, the Phillies rushed back to the cozy visitors’ clubhouse at RFK to gather around the television set and watch the end of the Mets-Marlins action from Miami. Pat Burrell and Aaron Rowand helped rearrange the furniture in the tiny room so the entire team could get unobstructed views.

For a night, the visitors’ clubhouse at RFK Stadium was the best little sports bar in The District of Columbia. When Dan Uggla’s 10th inning hit won it for the Marlins, the clubhouse suddenly morphed into a scene right out of Animal House.

Manuel loved it.

“What was cool was that I didn't see anybody who wasn't interested,” Manuel said. “I've been around a long time, and sometimes there are guys who just don’t give damn about it. They'd get dressed and get the hell out of there. I wonder about that sometimes. (But) last night, everybody we had was around the TV.”

The Phillies were back around the TV set before Friday’s game, too. This time, instead of the matinee action from around the league, a dozen players or so were paying rapt attention to a DVD of Ken Burns’ documentary, Baseball. When the film came to the part in which the legendary Buck O’Neil described the sound of the ball crashing off the bat of Babe Ruth, Josh Gibson and Bo Jackson – a sound O’Neil says he never heard from any other player – shortstop Jimmy Rollins recited the lines in sync with O’Neil.

Then Rollins ad libbed some of his own lines.

“Buck didn’t live long enough to hear Ryan Howard,” Rollins stated. “Ryan has that sound, too.”

A few teammates nodded in agreement.

Clearly the Phillies want to make a little noise of their own during the final week of the season. Desperate to hear the sweet symphony of baseball in October seems much more apt.

“I just want to get in (to the playoffs),” Manuel said. “I've been here three years in a row. It seems like we just left here and here we are again. We have to cross that line. We had to fight and claw. I don't know what else to do.”

Win. Just win.

The ‘pen is mighty It’s interesting to note that the Phils are making their sprint for the finish line with big contributions as of late from a rejuvenated bullpen. Maligned for the entire season as being the team’s Achilles heel, the Phillies’ relieving corps has bailed out the starters after short outings in two of the last three games.

To follow up Tuesday’s 14-inning victory in which the relievers tossed 11 frames one-run ball, the ‘pen went seven scoreless innings last night against the Nats. Of course the memory of Monday night’s near debacle where the relievers almost coughed up an 11-run lead, but since then they have been pretty good. In the last three games the bullpen has allowed just two runs in 21 2/3 innings.

“Like last night, our starter (Kyle Lohse) goes two and they don't score off a bullpen that can give up runs,” Manuel said. “At times, it seems like we can't stop anybody and then we'll do pretty good.”

Truth be told, Manuel admits he is a little surprised by work out of the ‘pen.

“I’m surprised,” he said. “If you look at it based on the way we’ve played all year, winning six of seven has been hard for us. In order to (go on a winning streak) you have to be consistent, and sometimes we haven’t been consistent.”

Nevertheless, 21 2/3 innings is a lot of work in just three games – especially at this point of the season. Aside from a complete game from a starting pitcher, Manuel acknowledges that he will have to use other relievers in addition to his core group of go-to guys in Myers, Tom Gordon and J.C. Romero.

“We’re going to get into position where we’ll have to use guys like (Geoff) Geary and (J.D.) Durbin,” Manuel said.

Hail to the Chiefs A handful of Phillies were granted a special audience with President George W. Bush as well as a private tour of the White House on Friday morning.

Utley, Howard, Burrell, Hamels, Myers, Rollins, Manuel and director of team travel and clubhouse services Frank Coppenbarger met the President in the Oval Office before their special tour of the most famous residence on the earth.

“It's not as private as you would expect it to be,” Utley said. “There's a lot of people running around.”

Mostly, though, the players were awed by meeting the President and seeing the White House up close and personal.

“He knew who we were,” Utley said. “He seemed pretty informed about what was going on (in baseball).”

Said Hamels: “We didn't joke around. It's a situation that you just find yourself in awe of. (President Bush) appeared to be a normal guy… well, as normal as you can expect. He was really busy and that's a good thing. It's good to know the President is a very busy guy.”