Thursday morning: Double threat spells trouble

Get a load of this: The Phillies lead the National League in home runs and stolen-base percentage with an eye-popping 85 percent. Better yet, that 85 percent comes out of the second-highest total of stolen bags in the league. In 143 attempts, the Phillies have been caught stealing just 22 times.

That comes to approximately one caught stealing per week.

So based on those stats, how come the Phillies are not in first place? Better yet, how can the team that leads the league in homers and stolen base percentage is not running away with the division?

What's the deal?

Maybe the .253 team batting average is the culprit - or the middle-of-the road .330 on-base percentage. But then how would that account for the third-most runs in the league?

What about the 1,006 strikeouts, or does that just manifest itself in the paltry batting average? Certainly it can't be the pitching. After all, the Phillies have the fourth-best ERA in the league (3.91) as well as the second-best bullpen ERA (3.26).

So come on... what's the deal? Why are the Phillies chasing the Mets in the East and the Brewers in the wild-card race?

During this decade there has been no team to lead the league in both homers and steals. In fact, it hasn't even been close. Most teams just don't have that type of balance or versatility.

Doesn't there have to be a reason why the Phillies find themselves tied with the Astros and a half-game ahead of the Cardinals for the wild-spot? Clearly they are some sort of statistical oddity that defies logic, but someone has to have an answer...

Right?

Anyone?

For the Inquirer, Phil Sheridan suggests that the team is playing uninspired baseball. After storming back to overtake the Mets in 2007, the Phillies have suddenly turned into a team that appears to have difficulty with the pressure of a pennant race.

Rich Hofmann, in his blog for the Daily News suggests that the bullpen is simply fried. The eighth inning pitchers - Chad Durbin and J.C. Romero - just can't get the elad to closer Brad Lidge the way they did during the first half of the season.

Noting that he really doesn't have too many options as far as roster flexibility, manager Charlie Manuel seems ready to patch work the rotation the rest of the way, making ample use of the two remaining off days. In the Wilmington News Journal, Scott Lauber lays out how it might play out. Accordingly, the Phillies could go into the final weekend of the season with Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer and Cole Hamels lined up.

But to make that all work, Manuel has to send Moyer out to the mound on just three-days rest on Thursday night. As Todd Zolecki points out, Moyer has pitched 17 times on short rest during his long career, so if someone has to do buck up for the Phillies, it might as well be the 45-year-old lefty.

Todd also pointed out that the Phillies announced their post-season ticket plans... maybe they're jumping the gun a bit.

Meanwhile, in New York they are starting to breathe a little easier following the Phillies' loss to the Marlins on Wednesday afternoon. With a 3 ½ game lead with 16 to go, the Mets are in a pretty good spot - perhaps they are even in a better spot than they were last season when they had a seven-game lead with 17 games to go.

How could that be? Two words: Carlos Delgado.

Ben Shpigel explains in The New York Times that Delgado is doing for the Mets this season what Jimmy Rollins did for the Phillies during the epic run for the playoffs last season. With Delgado, Shpigel writes, the Mets are just as fearsome now as they were during the run to the NLCS in 2006.

Needless to say, the four-game series this weekend against the Brewers will go a long way in determining which direction the Phillies will be going during the final fortnight of the season. We'll find out if they are still a threat to the Mets, fighting neck-and-neck with the Brewers, or booking vacation itineraries for early October.

Coming next: Lance Armstrong's return.

2008 Phillies are World Serious

I feel the need to amend. I'd say clarify instead, but to do something like that means to omit a wrong. And man was I wrong.

Not too long ago - January 30, 2008, to be precise - I wrote a little essay entitled, "2008 Phillies: Playing for 2nd place" and, man, was I ever off on that one.

Sheesh!

The basic premise of the story was that Johan Santana was so good that the Mets would not be able to help themselves in winning the NL East. To be sure, Santana is good. Actually, he's very good and probably better than any pitcher the Phillies have. In fact, Santana might very well win 20 games for the Mets this season and in his 11 starts so far, the Mets are 8-3.

In that regard the Santana deal is working out very well for the Mets.

The trouble is that while the Mets have a .727 winning percentage in games started by Santana, they are 18-24 in games started by pitchers not named Johan Santana. Those aren't exactly Steve Carlton in '72 numbers, but who would have guessed that the Mets would have been this bad?

The idea was that Santana would lift up the entire ballclub rather than be the guy doing all the heavy lifting.

So here we are on the last day of May on the cusp of June with July and the All-Star Break not too far away. Behind that, the dog days lurk, but by then will the Mets (or Mutts) have rolled over on their backs to reveal their soft, pink rounded bellies.

That certainly seems where we're headed.

Really, come on... who would have guessed that there would have been such a big carry-over from the most epic collapse in baseball history? Apparently, not me.

So that's the reason for the amendment. Because the Mets, well... stink, and because the Braves might not have all of the pitching or health needed, and because the Marlins aren't quite ready yet, the NL East in 2008 is the Phillies' to lose.

Actually, make that to win.

Yes, it's all rainbows and unicorns here with the Phillies these days.  After all, they score runs like a beer league softball team and pitch well enough not to mess up anything. No, that last part isn't the most inspiring type of pitching staff to have, but whatever.

Unless something really wacky occurs, don't expect to see the Phillies give up first place any time this year.

2008 Phillies: Playing for 2nd place

It could go down that Johan Santana was involved in two of the most lopsided trades in baseball history. In addition to landing with the Mets from the Twins for a pile of potential prospects, the two-time Cy Young Award winner was once traded from the Marlins for a dude named Jared Camp. That was after the Marlins plucked him away from the Astros in the Rule 5 Draft.

So yeah, there are a lot of smart baseball folks that missed the boat on Johan Santana. The Mets, however, are not one of those "smart" teams. Instead of feeling the knee-jerk blather from fans, pundits and Billy Wagner regarding the dearth of wintertime moves, the Mets now have the best pitcher in baseball at the top of the rotation.

We'd get into the analysis of how good Santana is with his statistics and all of that stuff, but what's the point? He's a lefty, he's nasty and he's better than everyone else in the game. Go look up the stats yourself, though I will give one warning before you click on the link - they should make Phillies fans a little sick in the stomach.

Out here in the hinterlands I really don't get the full affect of the Philly sporting press's deconstruction of the Santana deal, but then again who needs it. After all, it's not the balance of power in the NL East that shifted with Santana's arrival in Queens - it's the balance of power in the entire National League that shifted.

Playoff baseball at Shea one last time, anyone?

The big question, of course, is what does it all mean for the Phillies. Well, for starters the Phillies will have to root for an even bigger and more epic collapse from the Mets down the stretch. They also have to root for an injury to Santana, though the guy hasn't missed a start since 2004. In that regard the Phillies might be better served with a voodoo doll.

More concisely, facing Santana a handful of times in 2008 will have a profound effect on the Phillies' lineup. That's especially the case when one notes that Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Geoff Jenkins are all lefty swingers.

It is worth noting that switch-hitters Jimmy Rollins hit .321 against lefties in 2007 and Shane Victorino went at a .291 clip. But then again, Santana has been just as tough on righties (.220) as lefties (.223) during his career.

Here's what else Santana-to-the-Mets means for the Phillies:

It means they should go out and make an offer to a pitcher like Kyle Lohse or Livan Hernandez and hope they sign on...

Before the Mets get both of them.